Each week FTNBets.com provides an in-depth look at advanced statistics that will help you make decisions when researching which lines to wager on for the upcoming slate of NFL games.
Here is a look at five stats you must know before wagering on the NFL in Week 5.
1. Only Alvin Kamara has more receiving yards than James Robinson among running backs.
Kamara leading all NFL running backs in receiving yards is not surprising, but Robinson being second is. He is likely to have a much lower receiving yardage prop for Week 5 against the Texans, who have been good against pass-catching backs under a false pretense. In the Texans’ games against the Chiefs, Ravens and Vikings, the score did not allow for opposing running backs to catch the ball. In the Texans’ game against the Steelers, Pittsburgh completed five of seven targets to their backs for 47 yards. Keep an eye on Robinson’s receiving prop for Week 5, as the Jaguars are six-point underdogs, which alludes to a positive prediction for Robinson’s pass-catching abilities.
2. The Miami Dolphins are 31st in red zone rushing defense and passing defense.
Miami’s defense has really struggled in the red zone, and they get the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. San Francisco has visited the red zone at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, which, combined with the Dolphins’ red zone woes, could mean a lot of points for the 49ers. As San Francisco gets healthier, the stars are aligning for the 49ers’ team total in this one.
3. Jerick McKinnon played 92% of the snaps in Week 4 for the 49ers.
Running back Raheem Mostert is questionable for Week 5. But if he is out, there is an overwhelming snap share set up for McKinnon in a prominent matchup. Keep an eye on McKinnon’s props if Mostert is out, and if Mostert is active it could lead to value in the “under” markets for McKinnon.
4. The Las Vegas Raiders have missed the second-most tackles in the NFL.
The Raiders are 31st in tackling per this statistic, which is great news for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the Kansas City Chiefs. In addition, Las Vegas ranks fifth-worst in adjusted line yards allowed and third-worst in explosive run rate allowed. With an expected positive prediction for a running back, this could be the week where CEH crushes his props. Keep an eye on his rushing yards, touchdowns, and more.
5. New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are first and second in the NFL in pass rate.
Points, points, points. The two teams that have thrown the football most often this season are the Giants and Cowboys. Of course, both have had come-from-behind natures in the first four games, but nearly 70% passes is quite the significant number. In addition, both defenses have been putrid, allowing passer ratings of 114.3 and 103.1, respectively. With the struggles both teams have had defending the pass combined with their current pass rates, betting the Cowboys/Giants over will be quite the popular bet. You can combine that with same-game parlays and correlate passing touchdown props, passing yards and others with the over for a larger payout.